Prediction of XRP pricing as an XRP whale activates the wallet with 30 million tokens - What's going on?
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The price of XRP has fallen 2% in the last 24 hours, dropping to $0.386705 amid a market-wide sale yesterday. Its current level means it has fallen 6% in a week but has risen 10% over the past 30 days, with the $30 million Kraken settlement with the SEC likely to signal additional losses this weekend.
Today's moves also follow reports of whales and large investors moving XRP to the stock exchanges, possibly to sell the altcoin before new falls. However, while in the short term, it seems unfavorable to XRP, the prospect of a Ripple victory against the SEC raises hopes for a big rally later in the year.
Prediction of XRP pricing as an XRP whale activates the wallet with 30 million tokens - What's going on?
The XRP chart suggests that additional losses could come in the next few days before the price of altcoin settles and starts rising again. In particular, its relative strength index (purple) has shown a steady decline in recent days and may continue to fall towards 30 before climbing up again along with the XRP price.
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Something similar applies to the 30-day moving average of XRP (red), which after reaching a peak relative to its 200-day average (blue) seems to be able to begin to decline again.
The key support level to be wary of here is $0.38. If XRP drops decisively below this level, this could be the additional pain.
That this is a possibility has been highlighted in recent days by reports of whales moving XRP to exchanges. Indeed, a large investor transferred XRP 34 million (worth about $13.5 million) to Bit stamp a few days ago, and it may have been a big part of the reason why the currency fell on the last day.
However, it remains important to look at the bigger, longer-term picture here, with the Ripple case against the SEC still looking good for XRP and the broader cryptocurrency market. According to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, this case will likely end by the end of the first half of 2023 or at the latest by the end of the year.
While the SEC has seen victories in similar cases in recent months, it is certainly not a previous conclusion that it will win this particular case. At the end of last month, the Web3 LBRY platform scored an important point against the SEC, as the appeal hearing resulted in a statement from the judge that the sale of LBC tokens by third parties does not count as a sale of unregistered securities.
This is extremely significant for Ripple because it suggests that if the court finds that Ripple itself has sold unregistered securities, this ruling will not prevent the stock exchanges from continuing to list XRP. As such, even a loss to Ripple can end up being kind of irrelevant to the future of Ripple and crypto.
Not only that, but the last few months have brought a series of small victories for Ripple. This includes the court that upholds its right to present a fair defense, as well as Judge Torres who grants it access to important documents and emails related to a 2018 speech given by then-President William Hinman.
On a more general level, observers also argued that the SECr was unable to determine how Ripple developed a "joint venture" -- as described in the Howey test -- that would increase the XRP value. If accurate, such an analysis suggests that Ripple could end up getting some kind of positive judgment or settlement.
And what's promising for Ripple is that it's been able to grow its business even in the context of a long-running legal battle. For example, its Q4 2022 XRP Markets report revealed last week that it had made XRP net sales of $226.31 million in that quarter alone.
Given the health of Ripple's business, a win-win in its case with the SEC could really clear the way for a large expansion of demand for XRP. The price of altcoin could easily rise to $1 in a few days after a positive conclusion arrives, while the end of the year could see it rise even more.
